Is the Iranian nuclear deal just a nuclear deal? Is it something bigger that will transform Iran and the broader Middle East?
Or is it a slow-motion nightmare?
Nobody can know today, of course — and yet it's important to game out the possibilities. What you think of this deal, with terms lasting a decade or more, depends heavily on what scenarios you think are most likely in the future.
President Obama has offered an optimistic scenario: Iran never gets the bomb and seizes an opportunity to end its isolation.