A new poll finds New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in a double-digit lead against his republican opponent for the fall elections. But the survey finds that ratio changes, if a progressive third party candidate emerges.
The Siena poll finds Cuomo leads GOP candidate Rob Astorino by 30 points. But fewer than half think the governor is doing a good job in office, and, if the state’s Working Families Party follows through on threats to run a progressive leaning candidate on a third party line, Siena’s Steve Greenberg says the race becomes much closer, to just a 15 point lead for Cuomo. Astorino and the third party candidate would each get 24% of the vote in the hypothetical match up. Greenberg says the numbers indicate unrest among the most leftward leaning democrats.
“There is clearly some disaffection with Andrew Cuomo among the liberal members of his party,” Greenberg said.
Working Families has not yet decided whether to run its own candidate for governor. Greenberg says if that occurs, it’s far from certain whether that candidate would actually win over that many voters.
“Would that person get 24 percent six months from now on election day?” Greenberg said. “That seems like an awfully large number.”
He says no third party candidate has received more than 20 percent of the vote since conservative candidate Herb London ran for governor in 1990 against a weak Republican candidate, and the present governor’s father, Mario Cuomo, who successfully won re-election to a third term.
Astorino also faces challenges, according to the poll. Two-thirds of New Yorkers don’t know enough about him to decide whether they like him or not.