Insurance premiums are rising and the reason is rather simple, substantial losses due to climate events such as flooding, tornados (much in the news right now), heavy rains, massive snow storms, increasing high tides and forest fires among other events that mother nature has spurred, has resulted in substantial losses for insurers. It is not just evidencing itself in higher rates but also in cancellation notices as insurers are withdrawing from states that have had such significant events. The overall industry showed substantial losses from about 2017 through the current date, while the states showing huge insurance losses included South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida and Illinois. In fact, there is no end in sight to these losses and how the insurance industry deals with it and the cost to consumers will be something we all need to be watching.
President Biden announced new tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports. This is something that was bitterly complained about during the Trump administration with the primary difference being that Mr. Trump issued tariffs covering virtually all Chinese imports, while Mr. Biden is focused on high-end items such as electric vehicles, semiconductors and medical products, and they are designed to protect some of the strategic sectors of our economy and punish China for unfair trade practices. In either event, this will increase costs for Americans because no matter what politicians say, the cost is passed on.
Israel has now returned to Gaza’s northern areas which demonstrates that they have not successfully eliminated Hamas, and raises the question as to whether or not the vast number of deaths are merely punishment heaped on Palestinians rather than the cost of a strategy to eliminate Hamas. It is also quite telling that the Israeli military is becoming more and more agitated by the fact that there is no discussion of how Gazza will be governed going forward, as the military does not want to be an occupying force, and I suspect the Israeli Defense Forces do not have the manpower to do that and at the same time protect Israel against other threats. Mr. Netanyahu is a real problem who is only concerned with his political life, and not about what is best for Israel.
Inflation was down from 3.5% to 3.4% in April. Core inflation is at its lowest level since 2021 and represents an effort to smooth out inflation numbers from those prices that bounce month to month. A bit of good news on the inflation front.
It appeared that Michael Cohen’s cross examination was a mixed bag as Cohen largely maintained his cool while Mr. Trump’s lawyer, Todd Blanche, attempted to provoke him. Observers felt that it was unclear whether any damage had been done to Cohen by the cross examination. In something of a bizarre note, Trump appeared to doze off during this cross examination.
The US is considering lifting sanctions on an Israeli businessman that will allow him to liquidate his interest in cobalt mines with at least the implicit understanding that US companies would be the ones who would acquire those cobalt mines. Cobalt, as I am sure you are aware, is a very significant mineral needed in many high-tech industries. I only point this out because it establishes the specter of a pragmatic decision that, in fact, ignores the political reality in the Congo, and the damage that has been done to its citizens. These are, unfortunately, the difficult decisions that have to be made in the US’ self-interest and its ability to maintain its security.
Israeli extremists continue to hammer Palestinians that live in the West Bank, at least according to news reports, the area has descended into a lawless environment. This unfortunately fits well with Israeli’s invasion of northern Gazza, as was discussed earlier, and clear evidence that they have not succeeded in eliminating Hamas, and a new strategy needs to be developed. This is a situation that many commentators have remarked upon as simply setting the stage for the next generation of Hamas and West Bank Palestinians who will resort to whatever means are necessary to inflict harm on Israel and its citizens.
On the home front, speaker Mike Johnson fumbled when asked why the GOP was defunding the police, at the same time criticizing Democrats for allegedly doing the same thing. He could not explain why his own party was cutting the budget for law enforcement, and appeared to indicate that he hadn’t studied the budget adequately enough. It also means that his staff fell down on the job because they should have warned him that this was the situation. Interestingly enough, this comes right out of the Republican budget and from the Republican Study Group. The specific program involved is the Community Oriented Policing Services Program, which has provided over $20 billion to more than 13,000 different police departments to help in the recruiting process. This is another one of those moments where you wonder who’s in charge.
It appears that Hamas is utilizing Gorilla tactics in the north of Gaza, which the Israeli’s are trying to contain. The ability of Hamas or any terror group to keep switching tactics because they are flexible, have very few rules and usually weak structures creates an environment that begs the question about what Israelis should be doing to control it, as opposed to trying to eliminate it – an impossible dream.
Mr. Trump and friends are drawing up draconian plans for immigrants. Are Latino voters sure he is a better choice for them as they may be waving goodbye to their relatives?
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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