Election Day is Tuesday and millions of voters have already cast their ballot. Voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania are leaning slightly toward former President Donald Trump. That’s according to the latest poll from Connecticut’s Quinnipiac University. It finds that 47 percent of likely voters support Trump, while 46 percent support Vice President Kalama Harris. This is a slight shift from an October 9 survey that had Harris in the lead with 49 percent of the vote. But as with polls in several of the key swing states, the latest snapshot is well within the margin of error. For more, WAMC spoke with Quinnipiac Poll Analysist Tim Malloy.
This poll found that Trump got a little bit of boost, certainly from men. He still is very strong on the preserving democracy question, Middle East, economy, immigration. Harris has abortion. That's a plus for her. But generally, this poll was slightly better for Trump than it was the last time around, which is only a few weeks ago.
Did voters have any reasons? Why did they change their stance on why they would be more likely to vote?
You know the old saying is, these polls are a snapshot in time. There's an ebb and a flow. It can be one would go passed, and someone will do one thing, someone will do another, and it shifts a pointer to it. You’ve got to remember; this is so close that of the elections were held today it would be a dead tie. So, we're not seeing anything dramatic here. But I guess if you're a Trump person, it feels slightly good taking a look at this poll.
The poll had a little bit more support this time than in the last poll for third party candidates like Jill Stein and Chase Oliver. Why is that?
I can't tell you why. I can tell you it could be consequential, because they together have like, three, you know, percentage points. But when something's one point lead, they can, they can turn this thing, and that's the trouble sometimes, at least in the mind of some people with having these candidates who cannot win but pull enough away from one candidate or the other. I don't know why, but they're important.
And what do we learn about the presidential race from the results of the Senate polling?
The Senate poll shows that this race has gotten very tight between Republican challenger David McCormick and Democratic Senator Bob Casey. You know, three points is pretty much a tossup as well. We had it at eight points about a month and a half ago. It's shifted back to three, which is a real dog fight. So, the Senate race is a big deal because they're fighting for the Senate. This is the one that everybody's looking at the same way they're looking at Pennsylvania for the presidential. This is a key race, and it's really close. You know, maybe somebody's ads were a little better. I don't think any bombshell issues happened in the Senate race. But, you know, like I said, this thing goes back and forth, and now the Senate race is like the presidential race in Pennsylvania, extremely important. Maybe the race for both and both too close to call.
The poll also showed a widening of the gender gap is that typical right before the election?
No, but I'll tell you this, we've never seen a gender gap like this. In other words, there's an overwhelming number of women for Harris. There's an overwhelming number of men for Trump. HARRIS is in a little bit better position in that regard, percentage wise. But this is another perplexing thing about this, and one of the real variables, will women be the tipping point on this? There are more women who vote than men, and more women are for her than men are for Trump. So, it's a really interesting and tantalizing factor in this thing.
And maybe this happens every election season, but a lot of people found that this is one of the most important elections of their lifetime. Is that also typical?
No, we, I'll be honest with you, we've never asked that question. But because of the volatility of all this, we thought we would, and that's really interesting, when that many people, that many Americans, you know, we poll people from the age of 18, up to whatever. When that many Americans, that percentage, that big percentage, say that, it means that all eyes are on this, and there's great concern about the outcome one way or the other, Republicans or Democrats, have great concerns.
And was there anything about this polling the results that surprised you.
Here's something that you may want to take note of. Seven in 10 voters said they plan to vote in-person that's about, you know, 7 million that the other 30 percent are mailed it in, which means we won't know the Pennsylvania count right away, and if it's close, which it will be suddenly, one candidate, likely, Trump, will declare victory without the votes that were mailed in being counted. So, look for a dog fight in Pennsylvania a day after the election, and maybe more than that, because this thing may not be settled because of the mail in votes.
Quinnipiac Poll Analysist Tim Malloy.