Governor Kathy Hochul on Tuesday declared a statewide burn ban across New York through the end of the month as the Northeast continues to experience a lack of precipitation and a record amount of wildfires.
With dry brush and leaves littering the ground during a warm, dry autumn, much of eastern New York and all of southern New England are under a Red Flag warning.
To learn more about the conditions on the ground and what has led to this atypical fall season and increased fire risk, WAMC's Lucas Willard spoke with Samantha Borisoff, a climatologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University:
This dry pattern sort of started in earnest in September. Mid-September in particular, we started drying out, but then October came, and October was exceptionally dry. And that's putting it mildly. So, for several places, New York City, Philadelphia, Newark, it was the all-time driest month on record. And so, a few of those sites, for instance, Philadelphia and Newark, it was the first month without any measurable precipitation on record. And so, Philadelphia has records that stretch back to 1871 so this is the first month that Philadelphia has ever seen no measurable precipitation in a single month back to 1871, so that is impressive. The sheer lack of precipitation that large portions of the Northeast have seen, particularly in October, very impressive, historical numbers.
Obviously, it's been a very dry past several weeks. But what is a more typical weather pattern for this part of the country?
Sure, yeah. So, you know, with typical October weather, it can be pretty changeable. We're kind of transitioning from, you know, summer and even September, right, can kind of be a little bit more transitional, but we kind of think of September to be a little bit more toward the summer side of things, more so recently. October tends to be a little bit more transitional. We can sometimes get these convective storms that we would see, let's say, in the summer, you know, like thunderstorms, for instance. But we also are transitioning into the more wintertime-like atmospheric patterns, which tend to bring kind of more, larger, wide scale storms across the Northeast. You know, we can sometimes even get fall nor'easters. But then also, we're still in the time of year where we can get, you know, hurricane and tropical system remnants coming up the coast as well. So typically, in autumn, it can be a drier time of month, but we do typically see the ability to kind of have multiple different types of precipitation patterns moving through. So, while it tends to be a little bit more of a drier time of year, we typically do see at least some of, you know, one of those three types of weather patterns setting up ,where we get either thunderstorms or kind of just a widespread, you know, low pressure system or the remnants of a tropical system. And we haven't seen any of that this month, so very atypical.
Now it's been warmer for the past several weeks, but I woke up this morning and it was pretty cold out there. Does the actual air temperature have an effect, when it does get colder, have an effect in dampening any future fires? Is warmer temperature one of the magic ingredients when it comes to fire risk?
Sure, yeah. I mean warmer temperatures definitely do not help the situation. So, you're right. We've had warmer than normal temperatures in September, in October, to kick off November. We actually had a couple of sites that had their warmest high temperatures for the month of November. So, during that first week of November, temperatures have been unusually warm as well. And so, what happens is a couple of things. With warmer temperatures, warmer air can contain more moisture, so that drives increased evaporation. And so, when we already have a situation where conditions are already dry, there's less surface moisture already out there, right? We've been dry. Those warmer temperatures increase the thirst of the atmosphere. And so, what happens is that drives, again, more like increased evaporation. And so also what happens is, because there's less water at the surface, some of that energy goes into heating the air around it. So, again, it just creates sort of this feedback loop where you get these warmer temperatures that increase evaporation, but surface conditions are dry. So, you know, evaporation is limited so the air gets heated, it gets thirstier, and we kind of get into the cycle. And what happens is, when you're already in a drought, it can make existing conditions worse. We're also seeing that could also drive those warmer temperatures water demands, you know, the agriculture season stretching a little bit longer. Folks you know, might be watering lawns or using water in different ways, because, right, like we're already sitting, with drier conditions. And so there’s plants that are still out there growing. And so, the growing season is extended slightly with these warmer conditions as well. And so, the water used for, you know, certain plants may be increased as well. It all kind of ties together. So the warmer temperature certainly feeding into it as well. And it's funny that you mentioned it was cold because, you know, temperatures are, you know, actually falling, you know, for a very short period of time, back to where they actually should be. So, it's kind of, we’ve been warm. So as folks are kind of heading out, they're like, ‘Oh, it's cold.’ It's actually more normal. These temperatures that we're seeing, as far as, like, you know, it's not really necessarily cold, it's more, that's more where we should be for this time of year. These temperatures that we've been experiencing, are experiencing are warmer than normal. That's not how it should be this time of year.
So, when you look at the patterns that we've seen in recent years, looking ahead, are droughts going to be more common in this part of the country with climate change? Is that a distinct possibility?
Sure. So, you know, I think a lot of folks typically think of the Northeast as being a water-rich region, and we are, but we also can and do, as we're seeing right now, have significant drought at times. And I think folks do need to know that we do have these extremes, and that we will likely see these extremes in the future, and we need to prepare for both ends of those extremes as we head into, you know, the coming, years, decades, centuries. And another, you know, tie in with those future conditions is the increase in temperatures. You know, I kind of talked about that feedback loop. And so that ties right in with climate change. We've been warming. We expect that warming to continue. And so, you know, that drives increased evaporation, and kind of that whole feedback loop where it can either, it can kind of help put us into a drought or intensify existing drought conditions. So, we need to be prepared for both extremes of the extreme rainfall, that we talk about a lot in the northeast, but also, you know, the significant drought that that you know we're experiencing now, and will, you know, possibly see in the future as well.
Now, when it comes to water supply, and I'm thinking drinking water reservoirs or wells, can we expect, because of a dry fall, future conditions may be in the winter or spring, where water shortages may be common?
That's a really good question. I mean, in terms of, like, you know, the recharge and you know, of reservoirs and things like that's not, personally, something I typically keep a lot of an eye on, that falls more in the hydrology side of things. And there's a whole team of folks that kind of look after that. But what I can say is, yes, I mean, we need to be getting precipitation now to recharge surface water levels, groundwater in particular, especially in northern areas. You know, once the ground freezes, it's really hard to, recharge of groundwater levels is pretty limited, and so if we don't get a significant snow pack that would melt in the spring to recharge those groundwater levels, there could be some areas that are going into the spring and summer already with lower-than-normal groundwater level, surface water conditions and things like that. So, we certainly need to start to see that recharge happening now before we get into the colder months, especially if we don't get a very good snowpack. I mean that that could really set us up for a bad situation going into the spring.
So there has been an unusual amount of wildfires this fall across the Northeast, but also in recent years, we've seen very smoky summers, with wildfires burning in Canada and smoke drifting across the continent into the Northeast. Is just more wildfires going to be an unfortunate reality of climate change, is that something that we're already seeing and you expect to continue?
Yeah, that's a great question. And yes, you know, I do see the tie-in there with climate change, we were talking about those extremes and the warmer air temperature. So there certainly is a tie in there with, you know, yeah, I would say yes. You know, with climate change, we could potentially see more wildfires. I don't want to speak to the west coast or Canada because I'm not as familiar with, you know, the conditions out there. But you know, in general, it makes sense that if we're seeing increased evaporative demand, and you know, those warmer air temperatures that as we dry out and we get drought conditions, there is the potential for increased wildfire risk along with that. So, I would say that there is a tie-in. But in terms of, you know, the specifics of kind of the Western U.S. and Canada, I don't really feel quite comfortable talking about all of that.
One of the questions I've been getting asked quite a bit is, kind of, you know, when could there be relief, and if there's going to be precipitation or anything, and kind of, what the outlooks look like. And so I was just going to mention that right now, the weather outlook, so the next. Seven days really show little, if any rainfall. And so, we do expect that conditions would, you know, likely persist or maybe even worsen if we don't get any rainfall over the next seven days and then beyond that, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts out outlooks for shorter term, usually for a six to 10, eight to 14 day period. And so, you know, we just say that it does show above normal temperatures are favored for the region, and then near or above normal precipitation, which might sound great, right? You know, near or above normal precipitation, but it's going to take multiple slow soaking rain events to really dig ourselves out of these precipitation deficits, because since the start of September, places like New York City and Philadelphia, or Newark, they are lacking around eight inches of rainfall. So, from the start of September to now, they should have had around eight inches more precipitation than they have. And so, that's a really big deficit. And I know folks that were excited the other weekend, there was a little bit of rain shower activity, but really, that's just, you know, a drop or two, when you look at the sheer amount of precipitation that needs to be picked up to really dig us out of this drought significantly. It's going to take a little bit of time. And to think, that kind of ties into my other point, that folks really need to be careful. You know, most places have burn bans in effect, it's for an important reason. You know, it doesn't take much to start a fire right now, and they really need to be mindful of the activities that could start fires. And really follows burn bans. And also, you mentioned, you know, with the water, you know, conserve water the best you can. It's all interconnected. You know, each of us really just does need to do our part, because right now, we're stuck in a pretty bad situation, and it's going to take a little bit of time to dig us out of this.
