On a June 14, 1995, I vividly remember someone asking me if tonight is last game of the NBA Finals. I was a grad student at the University of Florida at the time, and the Houston Rockets were playing the Orlando Magic in the title series. I grew up in Houston and was an obsessive Rockets fan and had been at Rockets championship games the year before in Houston. So I was vested.
Now, the question technically didn’t make sense, as the Rockets were up 3-0 in a best of seven series, one that felt over since the moment Nick Anderson missed four consecutive free throws at the end of Game 1. From then on, it felt like a foregone conclusion, despite the fact that Orlando had both Shaq and Penny Hardaway. But the question didn’t make sense because you can’t say when the last game will be unless you’re already at Game 7. And this game was Game 4. Which meant that whomever was asking assumed the series was basically over, and the Rockets were going to win Game 4. In other words, the Rockets were going to sweep the Magic – four wins, no losses. That is exactly what happened, and neither team made a serious run for the title thereafter. So even though the question was wrong, I still totally got it.
There are very few words more emotionally charged in all of pro sports than the word “sweep.” Technically, it means one team won enough games to win a series without losing a single one. It also means the series ended in the minimum amount of time, which has repercussions across the sports complex. For example, it means less television revenue with fewer game broadcasts. If it’s not a championship series, it means one team might get more rest than their next opponent. It also has a particular psychological impact, especially in a title series. There’s no greater emotional 180 than making a Stanley Cup or World Series only to lose in the most definitive way possible. Even for the winning fans, a sweep isn’t a lot of fun. By the final game, it feels like cheering for New Year’s – you know it’s going to happen.
Perhaps that is why last night’s win by the New York Yankees against the LA Dodgers in Game 4 of the World Series was such a big deal. Down zero games to three and trailing 2-0 in the second inning, I’m certain fans in LA were pulling out their brooms. But the Yanks rallied with four runs in the third and five in the eighth and ended up winning 11-4, bringing the series to 3 games to 1. Still a longshot, but not a sweep. And I’m sure there’s a considerable part of the fanbase that thinks, hey, you win game five, then you’re only two away. And anything can happen.
Here's the bad news, at least for Yankees fans. No team has ever come back from down 3-0 to win the World Series. Two teams have forced a Game 7, but no one closed the deal. Only one team has won any baseball playoff series down 3-0 – the Red Sox in 2004, as you likely know. Now, if you want to suspend disbelief and ignore the order of victories, several teams have come back down 3-1, including six in the World Series. So if you just want to pretend the Yankees weren’t on the verge of being swept, you’ve got some reason for optimism.
There’s a lot you could say about how or why teams can or can’t come back from a huge deficit. Some of it is psychological. It feels like an impossible mountain to climb. Some if it is physical – namely if you’re down 3-0 or 3-1, there’s a decent chance the other team is simply better. And leaving aside those points, there’s the statistical improbability of winning three or four times in a row. Which is why I’m sure any statistician would tell teams to think of each game as a disparate act with no bearing on the next.
That said, if Yankees fans are looking for a pep talk, I’ll simply say that one of my favorite sports teams looked finished, down 3-1 in the NBA Conference Finals before coming back to win the series and then swept the NBA Finals. Of course, it was the Houston Rockets in 1995. And the final win of that series came right when we thought it would.
Keith Strudler is the Dean of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him at @KeithStrudler
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