As they say, elections have consequences. As the new year brings a new congress and President-elect, we’re already starting to feel the impact – I suppose good or bad, depending on your politics. But like it or not, change is coming.
And the sports world is not immune. And this year, sport seems to be a day one issue, with the US Congress jumping right in where campaign promises left off. More specifically, I’m referring to their work this week to ratify new legislation that would ban transgender women and girls from competing in women’s sports, following a campaign platform that placed largely Republican candidates on the more popular side of an issue that got outsized attention given its relative rarity. This legislation would amend Title IX with a bill called the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which is I suppose is pretty clever branding if you’re playing the game of politics.
This largely Republican bill is led by the former Auburn head football coach and current Alabama senator Tommy Tuberville, who often makes up for his lack of policy knowledge with a healthy dose of persistence. And it comes in reaction to a small number of highly publicized cases of a transgender woman participating in women’s sports with some success. According to NCAA president Charlie Baker, he knows of less than 10 transgender athletes competing in college sports out of over a half million. Whether that number is factually correct is somewhat irrelevant, because the one or two high profile cases are all that matter in this court of public opinion. So the fact that Penn transgender swimmer Lia Thomas went from mid-tier men’s college swimmer to an NCAA women’s champion is more than enough ammo to fight this legislative battle, especially with a public that’s largely on their side.
And that does seem to be case, with a 2023 Gallup Poll showing that 69% of Americans think transgender athletes should only be able to play in sports that match their birth gender. That number is up 7% from two years prior. And that 64% percent of those who know a transgender person believe the same thing – also up from prior polling. Which means that this isn’t a case of people needed to build more familiarity or lack personal perspective. It’s actually the opposite. The more they hear, the less they like the idea.
It isn’t all that surprising that this would be the first issue Congress would take up – even though some thought it odd to lean into culture war issues when the public seemed to speak clearly that it’s about the economy. First, don’t underestimate the importance to politicians to satisfy their base. And second, when it comes to culture issues or the so-called war on woke, this is low hanging fruit. When you have a 70/30 issue in this country, especially one that puts your opponents in a bit of a no-win situation, you take it. Granted, we’ve said the same thing about gun reform for like the last 20 years to no avail, but I digress.
So without belaboring the point, this bill is likely to pass, even though most Democrats will likely vote against it – although probably not all. And I’m guessing most Democrats would rather this pass quickly for obvious political reasons. Just ask Kamala Harris how being a vocal advocate for transgender issues played out for her. So we should recognize this as a likely fait accompli.
Lacking time and space, I won’t belabor the merits of the bill but simply repeat what I’ve said before. Which is if I had a kid who played girl’s or women’s sports, I’d probably agree with the basic tenants of the bill – which is that this can be biologically unfair at the highest levels. And that premise doesn’t come without the realization that this bill and its mandate can and likely will hurt people – including those that have nothing to do with athletics.
Perhaps that’s the unfortunate reality. As much as we fancy a sport as an escape, it also quite often a proxy and perhaps a battleground. And in this case, a political showhorse, where a nuanced conversation is far overshadowed by election opportunity – and by the way, blame goes to the edges of both parties for their orthodoxy. And while we shouldn’t forget that this will only impact an actual small number of people, these are people, not statistics – and many of them minors. And of course, that elections have consequences.
Keith Strudler is the Dean of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him at @KeithStrudler
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